Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4
- Jackson KentPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Freeman reached on infield single to third, Nimmo scored, Foscue to second, Duran to third.0–5
- 3Foscue walked, Seager scored, Duran to second, Nimmo to third.0–4
- 3Nimmo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langford scored, Seager third. Washington Nationals challenged: call on the field was upheld.0–3
- 2Foscue homered to left (400 feet).0–2
- 1Burger grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Langford scored, Seager out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML WSH +127 / TEX -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.3%, market 56.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -131
- WSH +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −12 | WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +30 Elo | TEX 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 32–2710th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–53 | 53–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 22–46 |
| Underdog | 54–38 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–52–7 | 62–55–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.