Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil doubled to right, Bolte scored and Heim scored.3–8
- 8Bolte grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, White scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz, Bolte second, Heim safe at third on error.3–6
- 7Butler homered to center (411 feet).3–5
- 6McNeil homered to right (400 feet).3–4
- 6Burger homered to center (428 feet), Seager scored and Duran scored.3–3
- 1Cortes doubled to right, Gelof scored, Wilson scored and Soderstrom scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -119 / ATH +111
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.1%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -115
- ATH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +43 Elo | TEX 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.530th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 21st of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 21–3930th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–70 | 56–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–44 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders | 61–53–8 | 60–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 27–19 ATH in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.