Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Liam HicksBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler homered to right center (426 feet).8–4
- 8Gelof homered to left center (388 feet).8–3
- 8Díaz singled to center, Palacios scored, Walls to third.8–2
- 4Hicks homered to right center (401 feet), Aranda scored and Caminero scored.7–2
- 4Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.4–2
- 3Cortes doubled to right, Gelof scored and Walton scored.3–2
- 3Mullins doubled to left, Caminero scored, Hicks thrown out at home. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–0
- 2Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Mullins scored on fielding error by pitcher Perkins, Palacios safe at third on error.2–0
- 2Palacios singled to left, DeLuca scored, Mullins to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML TB -222 / ATH +205
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TB: Elo 63.5%, market 67.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -210
- ATH +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.3 – 3.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +96 Elo | TB 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 21–3830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 143429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–48 | 56–64 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–28 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders | 52–62–5 | 59–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–8 ATH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.