Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 7Durbin doubled to left, Rafaela scored.1–13
- 7Rafaela reached on infield single to second, Rogers scored.1–12
- 6Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, White scored.1–11
- 6Durbin hit sacrifice fly to center, Rafaela scored, White to third.1–10
- 5Soderstrom homered to right center (387 feet).1–9
- 4Monasterio singled to left, Yoshida scored, Monasterio out stretching at second.0–9
- 4Yoshida doubled to right, Abreu scored.0–8
- 4Abreu singled to right, Sogard scored.0–7
- 4Rogers scored on pickoff error by pitcher Juenger, Sogard picked off third.0–6
- 4Rogers scored on pickoff error by pitcher Juenger, Sogard picked off third.0–6
- 2Abreu doubled to right, Rogers scored and Sogard scored.0–5
- 2Rogers doubled to center, Seigler scored.0–3
- 2Duran homered to left center (376 feet), Monasterio scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 71%
- ML ATH +240 / BOS -260
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.0%, market 71.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -246
- ATH +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +131 Elo | BOS 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 71.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 28–2920th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 29th of 301436 | Elo rating | 15484th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–61 | 59–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 30–40 |
| Underdog | 43–33 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 55–55–5 | 50–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–15 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.