Athletics at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brian ServenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Serven homered to left center (391 feet), Butler scored.5–6
- 7Bleday homered to right center (406 feet).3–6
- 5Myers walked, Stewart scored, Suárez to second, Bleday to third.3–5
- 5Suárez walked, McLain scored, Bleday to second, Stewart to third.3–4
- 4Stephenson homered to center (406 feet).3–3
- 4Stewart homered to center (416 feet).3–2
- 4Butler grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Heim scored, Muncy out at second, Soderstrom to third. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–1
- 4Soderstrom singled to center, Bolte and White scored, Heim to second.2–1
- 1De La Cruz homered to left center (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 61%
- ML ATH +153 / CIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.3%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -158
- ATH +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −1 | ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +51 Elo | CIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 28–3123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–61 | 58–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 42–33 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders | 54–55–5 | 59–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–5 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
