Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson homered to right (352 feet).2–10
- 8Triolo singled to center, Gonzalez scored.2–9
- 4Myers doubled to left, Lowe scored.1–9
- 4Lowe doubled to center, Bleday scored.1–8
- 4Reynolds singled to center, Mangum scored.1–7
- 3De La Cruz singled to right, Myers scored and Marte scored.0–7
- 3McLain hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored.0–5
- 2Hayes homered to center (429 feet).0–4
- 1Lowe singled to right, Stephenson scored.0–3
- 1Stephenson doubled to center, Bleday scored.0–2
- 1Stewart homered to left (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML PIT +118 / CIN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.1%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +15 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +15 Elo | CIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 25–3126th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–61 | 57–53 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders | 63–46–3 | 58–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 29–22 CIN in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.