Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stewart scored, Lowe second, Stephenson to second, Stephenson safe at third on error by second baseman Lowe.7–8
- 8Stewart singled to center, Marte scored and McLain scored, Stewart to second.7–7
- 8Lowe singled to center, Davis scored, Mangum to third.7–5
- 8Mangum singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Davis to third.6–5
- 8Davis singled to left, Gonzales scored, Rodríguez to second.5–5
- 5Valdez hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.4–5
- 4Stewart homered to center (409 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–5
- 3Bleday homered to right (386 feet).3–3
- 2Mangum homered to right (336 feet).3–2
- 1Lowe singled to right, Stephenson scored.2–2
- 1Stephenson doubled to left, Bleday scored.2–1
- 1Gonzales singled to center, Reynolds and Valdez scored, O'Hearn to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -126 / CIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.4%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 24–3027th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 148126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–60 | 56–52 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 62–45–3 | 57–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 28–21 CIN in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.