Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BarcoPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, De La Cruz scored, Stephenson out at second, Stewart to third. Pittsburgh Pirates challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–3
- 6Lowe homered to right (402 feet).2–2
- 5Gonzalez hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored.1–2
- 3Stewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 3De La Cruz doubled to center, McLain scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -126 / CIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | PIT: Yohan Ramirez (no track record yet) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +23 Elo | PIT 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 23–3028th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–59 | 55–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–37 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 62–44–3 | 57–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 28–20 CIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 48.