Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting2-5
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Davis singled to right, Ozuna scored.4–1
- 5Trevino homered to right (350 feet).3–1
- 3Gonzales grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lowe scored, Valdez out at second, Reynolds to third.3–0
- 3Valdez walked, Mangum scored, Reynolds to second, Lowe to third.2–0
- 3Reynolds walked, Davis scored, Lowe to second, Mangum to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -121 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 25–3026th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–61 | 57–52 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 63–45–3 | 58–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 28–22 CIN in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.