Athletics at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez walked, Stewart scored on a passed ball by Heim.4–5
- 8De La Cruz scored on Harris wild pitch, Stewart to third on wild pitch by Harris.4–5
- 8De La Cruz scored on Harris wild pitch, Stewart to third on wild pitch by Harris.4–5
- 7Bolte scored on error, Butler safe at first on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.4–3
- 5Stewart hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.3–3
- 5De La Cruz singled to left, Rodríguez scored and McLain scored, De La Cruz to second.3–2
- 5Wilson doubled to left, Butler scored and Walton scored.3–0
- 4McNeil singled to right, Soderstrom scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML ATH +121 / CIN -129
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.3%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −1 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +37 Elo | CIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 26–3126th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 29th of 301438 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–61 | 58–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 40–33 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders | 54–54–4 | 59–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–3 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
