Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 13Durbin singled to center, Sogard scored, Abreu to second.11–12
- 12Rogers hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.11–11
- 12Antonacci singled to left, Romo scored, B. Montgomery to second.11–10
- 11Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Sogard scored.10–10
- 11C. Montgomery hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.10–9
- 10Seigler hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored, Duran to second, Monasterio to third.9–9
- 10Monasterio doubled to left, Abreu scored, Jones to third.9–8
- 10Meidroth homered to left (362 feet), B. Montgomery scored.9–7
- 9Abreu singled to center, White scored.7–7
- 6Yoshida doubled to center, Durbin scored.7–6
- 5B. Montgomery reached on infield single to pitcher, Benintendi scored on error and C. Montgomery scored on throwing error by pitcher Slaten, B. Montgomery to second.7–5
- 4Seigler doubled to right, Monasterio scored and Yoshida scored.5–5
- 4Monasterio doubled to right, Durbin scored, Yoshida to third.5–3
- 4Antonacci doubled to right, Doyle scored.5–2
- 3Wong homered to left (387 feet), Seigler scored.4–2
- 3C. Montgomery singled to center, Vargas scored on error and Grichuk scored on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela, C. Montgomery to third.4–0
- 3Meidroth homered to left center (409 feet), B. Montgomery scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 65%
- ML CHW +179 / BOS -193
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.9%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -184
- CHW +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +77 Elo | BOS 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 27–2922nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–53 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 50–31 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 63–48–2 | 49–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–15 BOS in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.