Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-3
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abreu homered to center (419 feet).2–14
- 6Yoshida doubled to center, Contreras scored.2–13
- 6Contreras singled to left, Rafaela scored on error, Contreras safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Grichuk.2–12
- 6Rafaela doubled to left, Sogard scored and Monasterio scored.2–11
- 6Monasterio singled to center, Durbin scored and Duran scored.2–9
- 6B. Montgomery grounded out to second, C. Montgomery scored, Antonacci to second.2–7
- 5Abreu homered to center (430 feet).1–7
- 5Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Meidroth scored.1–6
- 1Duran homered to right center (414 feet).0–6
- 1Durbin homered to left center (401 feet), Rafaela scored, Contreras scored and Yoshida scored.0–5
- 1Contreras singled to center, Sogard scored, Rafaela to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML CHW +138 / BOS -147
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.5%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -142
- CHW +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 25–2926th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–51 | 57–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 28–39 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 62–47–2 | 48–59–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–13 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.