Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Durbin singled to right, Abreu scored.0–4
- 7Monasterio hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored.0–3
- 3Abreu homered to right center (390 feet).0–2
- 1Contreras singled to left, Abreu scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML CHW +137 / BOS -146
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.1%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -141
- CHW +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +64 Elo | BOS 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 26–2924th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–52 | 58–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 29–39 |
| Underdog | 50–30 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 63–47–2 | 49–59–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–14 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.