Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting2-5
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Eli WhiteBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy doubled to center, Walton scored.4–3
- 8Heim doubled to left, McNeil scored.3–3
- 5Abreu hit sacrifice fly to right, Rogers scored, Sogard to third.2–3
- 5Sogard grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, White scored on throwing error by pitcher Ginn, Sogard second, Rogers third.2–2
- 4White grounded out to shortstop, Soderstrom scored.2–1
- 2White singled to right, Contreras scored, Seigler to second.1–1
- 1Soderstrom grounded out to first, Bolte scored, Wilson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML ATH +195 / BOS -211
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.0%, market 66.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -200
- ATH +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −21 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Erik Miller: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +85 Elo | BOS 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3025–35 | Road vs home | 29–3020th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–62 | 60–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 31–41 |
| Underdog | 44–34 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 57–55–5 | 52–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–16 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.