Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Red Sox- Jahmai JonesBatting3-5
- Jake BennettPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin singled to left, Jones scored.7–3
- 9Bolte homered to center (439 feet).7–2
- 7Soderstrom homered to right (413 feet).6–2
- 6Walton hit a ground rule double, Butler scored and McNeil scored.5–2
- 5Heim singled to left, Williams scored and Wilson scored.3–2
- 4Serven reached on infield single to catcher, Wilson scored, White to second.1–2
- 1Monasterio singled to right, Jones scored and Durbin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 72%
- ML ATH +255 / BOS -277
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 71.9%, market 72.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -261
- ATH +261 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.4 – 5.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +8 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +163 Elo | BOS 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 72.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 29–2918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 29th of 301433 | Elo rating | 15504th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–62 | 60–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 31–40 |
| Underdog | 43–34 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 56–55–5 | 51–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–16 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.