Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Aranda singled to right, Walls scored.10–6
- 8Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored.9–6
- 8Walls singled to right, DeLuca scored and Simpson scored, Fortes to third.8–6
- 8Simpson singled to right, Vilade scored, DeLuca to second.6–6
- 8Caminero homered to left center (410 feet), Díaz scored and Aranda scored.5–6
- 7Wilson doubled to left, Gelof scored.2–6
- 7McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Walton scored.2–5
- 7Gelof doubled to center, Bolte scored, Walton to third.2–4
- 7Fortes grounded out to shortstop, DeLuca scored.2–3
- 5Gelof homered to left center (456 feet).1–3
- 1Soderstrom stole home, Cortes stole second, Cortes safe at third on throwing error by catcher Fortes.1–2
- 1Soderstrom stole home, Cortes stole second, Cortes safe at third on throwing error by catcher Fortes.1–2
- 1Soderstrom doubled to center, McNeil scored.1–1
- 1Díaz homered to center (439 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -154 / ATH +143
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.3%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -147
- ATH +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.4 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | 0 | TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 21–3630th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 143928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–48 | 56–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–28 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 45–34 |
| Overs–unders | 50–62–5 | 57–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–8 ATH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.
