Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching9.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cortes doubled to center, Williams scored and Gelof scored.12–4
- 8Williams homered to center (420 feet), Palacios scored and Díaz scored.12–2
- 7Mesa Jr. homered to center (412 feet), Hicks scored.9–2
- 6Walls homered to left center (379 feet).7–2
- 4Butler homered to center (417 feet), Wilson scored.6–2
- 4Díaz homered to right (362 feet).6–0
- 4Walls homered to right center (387 feet), Palacios scored.5–0
- 3Simpson sacrificed into double play, center to first to second, Caminero scored, Hicks thrown out at second.3–0
- 1Caminero homered to center (412 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML TB -182 / ATH +169
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 61.5%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -174
- ATH +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +82 Elo | TB 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 21–3730th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 143729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–48 | 56–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–28 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders | 51–62–5 | 58–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–8 ATH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.
