Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Abimelec OrtizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vivas singled to left, Lile scored, House to second.0–7
- 5Lile singled to right, Crews scored.0–6
- 5Ortiz homered to center (414 feet), Chaparro scored and Abrams scored.0–5
- 5Pinckney hit sacrifice fly to right, Vivas scored.0–2
- 4Crews doubled to left, Ortiz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -141 / WSH +131
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.1%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +5 | CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +43 Elo | CHC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 26–3629th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301554 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–61 | 70–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–47 | 19–15 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 51–37 |
| Overs–unders | 63–51–7 | 66–49–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 15–10 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.