Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-4
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Abimelec OrtizBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will DionPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chaparro doubled to center, Young scored and Ruiz scored.1–7
- 8Young grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Pinckney scored, Ruiz to second, Nuñez out at third.1–5
- 7Lile singled to right, Abrams scored.1–4
- 3Ortiz homered to left center (378 feet).1–3
- 2Young hit sacrifice fly to left, Vivas scored.1–2
- 2Ruiz singled to center, Crews scored, Vivas to third.1–1
- 2Myers hit sacrifice fly to right, Stephenson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML CIN +102 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.3%, market 51.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -106
- CIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 25–3428th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 69–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 42–32 | 51–35 |
| Overs–unders | 61–53–2 | 64–48–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–15 WSH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.