Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andrew PinckneyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schwarber singled to right, Stott scored.3–7
- 6Ruiz singled to center, Young scored, Nuñez to third.3–6
- 4Pinckney homered to right center (402 feet).2–6
- 3Stott doubled to right, Realmuto scored.1–6
- 3Realmuto singled to center, Marsh scored.1–5
- 3Marsh doubled to right, Harper scored.1–4
- 2Crawford singled to right, Realmuto scored.1–3
- 2Young singled to right, Ford scored.1–2
- 1Bohm doubled to right, Harper scored, Arraez thrown out at home.0–2
- 1Arraez doubled to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 76%
- ML WSH +303 / PHI -332
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.0%, market 75.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -310
- WSH +310 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +85 Elo | PHI 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 75.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–26 | Road vs home | 30–2815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 26th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–49 | 50–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 36–47 |
| Underdog | 50–34 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 62–47–7 | 48–60–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–31 PHI in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.