Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Luis ArraezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Nuñez grounded out to shortstop, Ford scored, Chaparro to third.10–4
- 11Chaparro doubled to left, Mikolas scored and Crews scored, Ford to third.9–4
- 11Mikolas hit sacrifice bunt, Abrams scored.7–4
- 11Abrams tripled to right, House scored and Young scored.6–4
- 10Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Hill scored.4–4
- 10Nuñez walked, Pinckney scored, Chaparro to second, Lile to third.4–3
- 7Stott singled to center, Bohm scored, Marsh to second.3–3
- 7Abrams singled to left, Young scored, Abrams to second.3–2
- 7House homered to right center (404 feet).2–2
- 2Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Realmuto to third.1–2
- 2Arraez homered to right (385 feet).1–1
- 1Ruiz singled to right, Abrams scored, Ortiz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML WSH +175 / PHI -187
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.6%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -179
- WSH +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −24 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–26 | Road vs home | 30–2713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–49 | 50–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 36–46 |
| Underdog | 49–34 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47–7 | 47–60–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 17–31 PHI in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.