Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Derek HillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to center (433 feet), Crawford scored.3–6
- 7Hill homered to left center (393 feet), De La Cruz scored, Stott scored and Sosa scored.3–4
- 2Lile homered to right center (373 feet), Ruiz scored.3–0
- 1Ortiz homered to right (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML WSH +134 / PHI -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −19 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–24 | Road vs home | 28–2716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–47 | 48–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 34–46 |
| Underdog | 49–32 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 61–46–6 | 47–59–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 17–29 PHI in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 46.