Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4
- Zack LittellPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner singled to right, Crawford scored.0–5
- 3Marsh doubled to right, Arraez scored.0–4
- 3Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored, Arraez to third.0–3
- 3Arraez doubled to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–2
- 1Arraez singled to center, Turner scored, Harper to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 74%
- ML WSH +282 / PHI -304
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.8%, market 74.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -287
- WSH +287 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | WSH: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +84 Elo | PHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 74.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–25 | Road vs home | 29–2715th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–48 | 49–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 35–46 |
| Underdog | 49–33 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 61–46–7 | 47–59–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 17–30 PHI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 47.