Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams singled to center, Chaparro scored, Young to third.2–8
- 8Chaparro singled to right, Vivas scored, Chaparro to second. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–7
- 6Young singled to center, Chaparro scored.2–6
- 6Chaparro doubled to left, Lile scored and Ruiz scored, Nuñez thrown out at home.2–5
- 6Lile singled to left, Crews scored.2–3
- 6Suárez homered to left center (415 feet), Stewart scored.2–2
- 3Ortiz singled to left, Tena scored and Abrams scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML CIN -133 / WSH +124
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.7%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +11 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +2 Elo | WSH 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 24–3429th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–57 | 68–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–25 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 42–32 | 50–35 |
| Overs–unders | 60–53–2 | 63–48–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–14 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.