Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MeyPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ford homered to center (396 feet), Lile scored.3–5
- 3De La Cruz homered to left (379 feet).3–3
- 3McLain homered to left (420 feet).2–3
- 2Suárez homered to left center (422 feet).1–3
- 1Lile homered to right (400 feet), Abrams scored and House scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML CIN +113 / WSH -121
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.5%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -117
- CIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +4 | CIN: Chase Petty: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +24 Elo | WSH 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 23–3429th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–56 | 67–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–25 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 42–31 | 50–35 |
| Overs–unders | 60–52–2 | 63–47–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–13 WSH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.