Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nuñez singled to center, Ford scored, Vivas to second.8–6
- 8Vivas singled to left, House scored. Washington Nationals challenged: call on the field was overturned.8–5
- 8Suzuki homered to center (409 feet).8–4
- 6Bregman homered to left (374 feet).7–4
- 5Crews homered to center (414 feet).6–4
- 5Swanson walked, Bregman scored, Conforto to second, Hoerner to third.6–3
- 4Suzuki doubled to left, Kelly scored, Swanson to third.5–3
- 4Kelly grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hoerner scored.4–3
- 4Conforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored, Hoerner to third.3–3
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (437 feet).2–3
- 2Young homered to center (427 feet).1–3
- 2Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored.1–2
- 1Abrams homered to right (364 feet), House scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML CHC -167 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.8%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +69 Elo | CHC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–26 | Road vs home | 26–3427th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 70–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–47 | 19–15 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 51–35 |
| Overs–unders | 61–51–7 | 64–49–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–10 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.