Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert StockPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette singled to center, Torrens scored, Lindor to third.1–4
- 7Young homered to right center (408 feet).1–3
- 6Benge singled to right, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to third.1–2
- 6Lindor homered to left (409 feet).1–1
- 3House singled to center, Abrams scored, Ortiz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML WSH +106 / NYM -114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.9%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -110
- WSH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Robert Stock: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +6 Elo | NYM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–27 | Road vs home | 25–3429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–52 | 58–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 52–37 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–50–7 | 55–56–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–28 NYM in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.