New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.8–5
- 5Harris II scored on Pintaro wild pitch.7–5
- 5Harris II scored on Pintaro wild pitch.7–5
- 4Acuña Jr. singled to left, Jarvis scored, Baldwin to third.7–4
- 4Baldwin singled to right, Riley scored, Jarvis to second.7–3
- 3Lindor homered to right (420 feet).7–2
- 2Young singled to right, Lindor scored.6–2
- 1Dubón singled to left, Baldwin scored and Olson scored, Albies to second.5–2
- 1Baty homered to center (407 feet), Bichette scored, Benge scored and Young scored.5–0
- 1Bichette singled to left, Ewing scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML NYM +127 / ATL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.5%, market 56.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -131
- NYM +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +52 Elo | ATL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 39–202nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–62 | 68–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 41–39 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 53–55–11 | 55–57–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 20–29 ATL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.