New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Angel GenaoBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bichette singled to right, Lindor scored, Bichette out stretching at second.6–5
- 9Young scored, Ewing safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio, Semien to second, Polanco to third.5–5
- 7Genao singled to left, Martínez scored, Bailey to second.4–5
- 7Bailey singled to right, Rocchio scored, Martínez to third.4–4
- 6Benge homered to right center (369 feet).4–3
- 5Lowe singled to right, Genao scored and Kwan scored, DeLauter to third.3–3
- 4Bazzana singled to left, Adell scored, Lowe to third.3–1
- 4Young doubled to right, Benge scored.3–0
- 3Polanco homered to right (380 feet).2–0
- 3Baty homered to left center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML NYM +101 / CLE -107
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.7%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −3 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +12 Elo | CLE 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 28–2920th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–61 | 57–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 18–39 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 49–55–10 | 53–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.