New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting2-4
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benge homered to center (451 feet).6–2
- 5Bazzana singled to center, DeLauter scored, Martínez to third.5–2
- 4Torrens singled to center, Semien scored.5–1
- 3Martínez doubled to left, Adell scored, DeLauter to third.4–1
- 3Bichette homered to left center (422 feet).4–0
- 2Torrens homered to right center (375 feet), Semien scored and Young scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML NYM +120 / CLE -128
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 28–2819th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–61 | 57–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 18–38 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–55–10 | 52–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–6 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.