New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robert Jr. singled to center, Bichette scored.11–1
- 5Alvarez homered to left center (393 feet).10–1
- 4Young singled to right, Bichette scored.9–1
- 4Bichette doubled to left, Alvarez scored, Lindor scored and Ewing scored.8–1
- 3Mangum homered to center (420 feet).5–1
- 3Semien singled to left, Young scored.5–0
- 3Robert Jr. homered to center (408 feet), Bichette scored.4–0
- 1Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–0
- 1Benge singled to left, Ewing scored, Bichette to second, Lindor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML NYM +130 / PIT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.9%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- NYM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 30–2916th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 149714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–62 | 53–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–55–11 | 65–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–11 PIT in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.