Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vaughn singled to left, Mitchell scored.2–5
- 5Pratt scored on error, Turang safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Gonzales.2–4
- 5Sánchez homered to left center (397 feet).2–3
- 4Horwitz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Rodríguez thrown out at third.2–2
- 4Lowe homered to left center (384 feet).1–2
- 3Pratt hit sacrifice fly to right, Hamilton scored.0–2
- 1Chourio homered to center (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML PIT +121 / MIL -129
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.0%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +71 Elo | MIL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 38–213rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–64 | 62–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 41–43 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 64–49–3 | 49–62–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 20–28 MIL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 48.