New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Yohan RamirezPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to center, Mangum scored.6–4
- 9Gonzalez singled to right, Simon scored, Gonzalez out stretching at second.6–3
- 7Mangum hit sacrifice fly to right, Simon scored, Triolo to third.6–2
- 7Triolo singled to left, Gonzales scored, Simon to second.6–1
- 4Lindor singled to center, Ewing scored.6–0
- 3Semien homered to left center (399 feet), Benge scored and Young scored.5–0
- 3Benge singled to right, Lindor scored.2–0
- 1Benge singled to center, Ewing scored, Bichette to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML NYM +119 / PIT -128
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +16 | NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +33 Elo | PIT 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 29–2817th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–61 | 52–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 51–55–10 | 64–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–10 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.