New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9DeLauter singled to center, Genao scored.13–6
- 8Bichette reached on infield single to third, Semien scored, Torrens to second, Young to third.13–5
- 8Torrens walked, Alvarez scored, Young to second, Semien to third.12–5
- 8Young walked, Benge scored, Semien to second, Alvarez to third.11–5
- 8Alvarez doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Benge to third.10–5
- 7Lindor homered to right (383 feet), Young scored and Torrens scored.9–5
- 5Lowe homered to right (413 feet), DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored.6–5
- 5Young singled to left, Alvarez scored, Semien to third.6–2
- 3Semien hit sacrifice fly to left, Benge scored.5–2
- 3Benge tripled to center, Robert Jr. scored.4–2
- 2Torrens homered to right (366 feet), Wagaman scored.3–2
- 2Semien homered to left center (392 feet).1–2
- 1Martínez singled to center, DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored, Lowe to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML NYM +114 / CLE -123
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 28–3022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–61 | 57–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 18–40 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–55–10 | 54–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.