New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-2
- Robert StockPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe homered to right (380 feet).0–9
- 4Gonzales doubled to right, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored, Horwitz to third.0–8
- 4Mangum scored on Stock wild pitch, Reynolds to second on wild pitch by Stock, Lowe to third on wild pitch by Stock.0–6
- 4Mangum scored on Stock wild pitch, Reynolds to second on wild pitch by Stock, Lowe to third on wild pitch by Stock.0–6
- 4Mangum doubled to left, Davis scored.0–5
- 3Gonzalez singled to right, Simon scored.0–4
- 1Simon doubled to left, Horwitz scored and Reynolds scored.0–3
- 1Gonzales grounded out to pitcher, Mangum scored, Horwitz to second, Reynolds to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML NYM +106 / PIT -114
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.6%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | NYM: Robert Stock: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 29–2918th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–61 | 52–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–55–10 | 65–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–10 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.