New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-4
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to right (423 feet), Baldwin scored.0–4
- 7Dubón hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored.0–2
- 5Albies homered to right (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML NYM +111 / ATL -119
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.6%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- NYM +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −11 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 68–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 41–40 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–55–11 | 56–57–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 21–29 ATL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 50.