New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette homered to center (405 feet).3–6
- 7Baldwin singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.2–6
- 7Riley homered to left center (438 feet).2–5
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right center (368 feet).2–4
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left (399 feet).2–3
- 6Torrens homered to right center (375 feet).1–3
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to left, Riley scored, Acuña Jr. thrown out at second, Murphy to third.0–3
- 3Olson grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin out at second.0–2
- 2Thomas homered to left (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML NYM +158 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.3%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -162
- NYM +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +58 Elo | ATL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 40–212nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–63 | 69–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–39 | 42–40 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–56–11 | 56–58–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 21–30 ATL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 51.