Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Abimelec OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz singled to right, Vivas scored.3–4
- 5Young doubled to right, Lindor scored.2–4
- 4Torrens homered to center (407 feet), Baty scored.2–3
- 4Polanco grounded out to first, Young scored, Baty to third.2–1
- 3Ortiz homered to left center (389 feet).2–0
- 2Ruiz singled to right, Lile scored, Ruiz to second, House thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML WSH +148 / NYM -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -153
- WSH +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +10 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +57 Elo | NYM 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 27–3428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–53 | 59–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 53–38 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 67–51–7 | 56–57–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–30 NYM in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 48.