Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will DionPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor singled to right, Pache scored, Robert Jr. to third.4–5
- 9Alvarez doubled to left, Baty scored, Pache to third.4–4
- 6Benge homered to right (372 feet).4–3
- 6House homered to left (380 feet), Pinckney scored and Chaparro scored.4–2
- 4Chaparro homered to left (380 feet).1–2
- 1Young doubled to left, Ewing scored and Lindor scored, Benge to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML WSH +126 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.4%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–28 | Road vs home | 26–3428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–53 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 52–38 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–51–7 | 55–57–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–29 NYM in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.