Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic singled to center, Carter scored, Burger to second.5–3
- 6Langford homered to left center (421 feet), Seager scored.4–3
- 6Seager singled to center, Nimmo scored.2–3
- 5Lopez singled to center, Burger scored.1–3
- 2Bolte homered to left (341 feet), Serven scored and Williams scored. Umpire review: call on the field was overturned.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML TEX -154 / ATH +143
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.6%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -147
- ATH +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +22 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 22–3930th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 143529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–71 | 57–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 46–37 |
| Overs–unders | 62–53–8 | 61–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 27–20 ATH in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.