Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8White homered to center (413 feet).2–5
- 7Gelof homered to right center (403 feet), Bolte scored.2–4
- 3Burger grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Langford scored, Nimmo out at second.2–2
- 2Butler homered to right (394 feet), White scored.1–2
- 2Burger homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -118 / ATH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −6 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +57 Elo | TEX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 22–4030th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 143429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–71 | 57–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–45 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 46–38 |
| Overs–unders | 62–54–8 | 61–57–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 28–20 ATH in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 48.