Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chaparro homered to left (397 feet), Ortiz scored and Tena scored.6–0
- 6Vivas grounded out to pitcher, Chaparro scored, Ruiz to third.3–0
- 4Ruiz singled to right, Chaparro scored.2–0
- 3Tena homered to center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML WSH +108 / TEX -116
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.1%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 33–2710th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–54 | 54–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 23–46 |
| Underdog | 54–39 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–53–7 | 62–56–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.