Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5
- Ryan JohnsonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Cody FreemanBatting1-3
- Cody BradfordPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grissom singled to right, Neto scored.3–0
- 6Ballesteros doubled to center, Trout scored.2–0
- 1Trout singled to center, Neto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 61%
- ML LAA +152 / TEX -163
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.6%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +14 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +67 Elo | TEX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–42 | Road vs home | 35–2810th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–69 | 55–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 52–44 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–74–2 | 62–59–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–28 TEX in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.