Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langford homered to left center (368 feet), Lopez scored.11–2
- 8Burger walked, Duran scored on Richards wild pitch.9–2
- 6Burger doubled to center, Carter scored, Burger out stretching at third.8–2
- 5Seager doubled to center, Foscue scored.7–2
- 5Burger homered to center (412 feet).6–2
- 3Seager doubled to center, Freeman scored and Díaz scored.5–2
- 2Peters homered to right (372 feet), B. Montgomery scored.3–2
- 2Duran reached on infield single to second, Seager scored, Nimmo to second, Langford to third.3–0
- 1Carter doubled to right, Langford scored, Duran to third.2–0
- 1Duran grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Pederson scored, Nimmo out at second, Langford to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML TEX +116 / CHW -124
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 58.1%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -120
- TEX +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +14 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +57 Elo | CHW 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 39–267th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–75 | 70–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–49 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 58–34 |
| Overs–unders | 62–60–9 | 73–55–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 17–5 CHW in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 22.