Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-2
- Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Montgomery doubled to right, Grichuk scored and Vargas scored.3–0
- 6Benintendi singled to center, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML CHW +135 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.6%, market 58.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -139
- CHW +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +15 | CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +97 Elo | CHC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 38–266th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–57 | 62–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 57–33 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 71–52–2 | 66–54–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–15 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.