St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Amaya homered to right center (395 feet).11–4
- 8Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored.11–3
- 8Walker doubled to center, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored.11–2
- 4Walker homered to center (413 feet), Burleson scored.9–2
- 4Burleson singled to left, Jordan scored and Wetherholt scored.7–2
- 4Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Crooks scored, Wetherholt to second, Jordan to third.5–2
- 4Wetherholt walked, Winn scored, Jordan to second, Crooks to third. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (408 feet), Triantos scored.3–2
- 2Jordan singled to center, Crooks scored.3–0
- 1Burleson homered to right center (421 feet), Wetherholt scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML STL +163 / CHC -176
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.5%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -168
- STL +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −15 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 36–257th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–55 | 61–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–28 | 32–49 |
| Underdog | 55–27 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 48–68–7 | 64–53–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 23–28 CHC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 51.