St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Joshua BaezBatting3-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bregman grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Suzuki scored, Busch out at second.8–4
- 8Burleson homered to left center (403 feet).8–3
- 6Jordan homered to left center (408 feet).7–3
- 6Jo. Báez homered to right (368 feet), Burleson scored.6–3
- 4Jo. Báez homered to left (382 feet).4–3
- 2Conforto homered to right (376 feet), Hoerner scored and Ramirez scored.3–3
- 1Jo. Báez homered to center (449 feet), Burleson scored.3–0
- 1Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wetherholt scored, Walker out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML STL +168 / CHC -181
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.8%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -173
- STL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +9 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +99 Elo | CHC 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 36–247th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–55 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–28 | 32–48 |
| Underdog | 54–27 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 47–68–7 | 63–53–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 22–28 CHC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.