Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Luis ArraezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Church hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.1–7
- 7Burleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.1–6
- 5Walker doubled to left, Burleson scored.1–5
- 5Burleson doubled to center, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored.1–4
- 5Herrera singled to center, Prieto scored, Wetherholt to third.1–2
- 4Arraez hit a ground rule double, Harper scored.1–1
- 2Church doubled to left, Walker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -163 / STL +151
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- STL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +23 Elo | PHI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 31–3424th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–70 | 66–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–52 | 13–28 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 53–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61–7 | 47–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–8 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.