Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Lukes homered to right center (395 feet), Valenzuela scored.7–5
- 10Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.5–5
- 10Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Bateman scored.5–4
- 8Giménez doubled to center, Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.4–4
- 6Crawford tripled to center, Stott scored.2–4
- 6Marsh hit sacrifice fly to right, Arraez scored.2–3
- 6Harper homered to right center (399 feet).2–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (391 feet).2–1
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Straw scored, Bateman to second.2–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML TOR +157 / PHI -168
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.8%, market 61.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −15 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 31–2915th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 13th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–60 | 51–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 37–48 |
| Underdog | 33–21 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–56–4 | 50–60–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–12 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.