Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored, Turner to second.5–4
- 9Turner grounded into fielder's choice to first, Stott scored, Hill out at second, Crawford to third.5–3
- 8Smith homered to right center (383 feet).5–2
- 6Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Bateman to third.4–2
- 4Lukes singled to right, Smith scored, Bateman to third.3–2
- 3Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored.2–2
- 3Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Bateman scored.2–1
- 2Realmuto singled to left, Marsh scored on fielding error by left fielder Sánchez, Realmuto to second.1–1
- 2Giménez homered to right (346 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML TOR +187 / PHI -202
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +22 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +77 Elo | PHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 31–2814th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 14th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–60 | 51–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–56–4 | 49–60–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–12 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.